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Papal Transition

Rev. Thomas J. Reese, S.J., editor in chief of America, the Catholic weekly magazine, and author of Inside the Vatican: The Politics and Organization of the Catholic Church (Harvard University Press, 1996), answers questions about the transition from one papacy to the next. This page will be updated as needed. Journalists with questions, suggestions or corrections, may contact Father Reese at americaeditor@americamagazine.org.

Updated April 4, 2005, 5:42, EDT.

  • When did John Paul II last appoint New Cardinals?

  • What happens when the pope gets sick?

  • Can a pope resign?

  • What happens if the pope goes into a coma?

  • What would happen if a pope became mentally disabled?

  • What could the church do if the Apostolic See becomes impeded?

  • What happens when the pope dies?

  • When is the pope's funeral?

  • Who governs the church between the pope's death and the election of a new pope?

  • Is there campaigning prior to the conclave?

  • When and where is the conclave held?

  • Where does the word "conclave" come from?

  • Who is permitted in the conclave?

  • Who are the cardinal electors?

  • How has John Paul II changed the makeup of the college of cardinals?

  • Has the pope always been elected by the cardinals?

  • What happens on the first day of the conclave?

  • How does the balloting take place?

  • How long can the conclave last?

  • What happens after the first day?

  • Who can be elected?

  • Who might be elected?

  • Who would you bet on?

  • What are the chances of an American being elected?

  • What issues will be discussed in the conclave?

  • What happens after the election?

  • What issues will the next pope face?

  • Information on John Paul II.

  • "The Legacy of John Paul II," America editorial, April 18, 2005

Pope Last Appointed New Cardinals on Oct. 21, 2003

John Paul II again ignored church rules and raised the number of cardinal electors to 135 on Oct. 21, 2003, as he did in 2001. This raises the question of whether he or a future pope will simply change the law. Current law sets at 120 the maximum number of Cardinals under 80 years of age. Those over 80 cannot attend a conclave or vote for a new pope. [Currently (March 29, 2005), there are 117 cardinals under 80 years of age; only three were not appointed by John Paul.]

What happens when the pope gets sick?

If the pope becomes sick, he can delegate some of his authority to the cardinal secretary of state or to any other person. In the long history of the papacy, popes have formally or informally delegated authority to Vatican officials, cardinal nephews and other members of their families. But today the logical person to run the church while the pope is sick would be Cardinal Angelo Sodano, the secretary of state, who is more like a prime minister than a U.S. secretary of state. Such delegation presumes that the pope is still capable of making at least some decisions (such as the decision to delegate) and communicating. He cannot, however, delegate some aspects of his authority, such as his ability to teach infallibly.

The life of the church, which is lived mostly at the parish level, continues. Mass is celebrated and the sacraments are received. Bishops continue to run their dioceses. In the Vatican, the pope has had more than 26 years to appoint people whom he trusts to follow the policies he has set. They can continue to do the ordinary business of the Vatican, but they cannot change policies without his approval. Also, when differences of opinion arise in the Vatican or between diocesan bishops and Vatican officials, these would normally be brought to the pope for decision. If he is too sick to deal with these, problems will not be dealt with.

Can a pope resign?

Yes, a pope can resign. The number popes who may have resigned has been estimated as high as 10, but the historical evidence is limited. Most recently, during the Council of Constance in the 15th century, the Gregory XII resigned to bring about the end of the Western Schism and a new pope was elected in 1417. Pope Celestine V’s resignation in 1294 is the most famous because Dante placed him in hell for it. Most modern popes have felt that resignation is unacceptable. As Paul VI said, paternity cannot be resigned. In addition, Paul feared setting a precedent that would encourage factions in the church to pressure future popes to resign for reasons other than health. Nevertheless, the code of canon law in 1917 provided for the resignation of a pope as do the regulations established by Paul VI in 1975 and John Paul II in 1996. However, a resignation induced through fear or fraud would be invalid. In addition, canonists argue that a person resigning from an office must be of sound mind (canon 187).

Historical evidence for papal resignations is limited, especially if one eliminates resignations that may have been forced.

  1. Clement I (92?-101). Epiphanius asserted that Clement gave up the pontificate to Linus for the sake of peace and became pope again after the death of Cletus.

  2. Pontian (230-235). Allegedly resigned after being exiled to the mines of Sardinia during persecution of Maximinus Thrax.

  3. Cyriacus. A fictional character created in the Middle Ages who supposedly received a heavenly command to resign.

  4. Marcellinus (296-304). Abdicated or was deposed after complying with Diocletian's order to offer sacrifice to pagan gods.

  5. Martin I (649-655). Exiled by Emperor Constans II to Crimea. Before he died, clergy of Rome elected a successor whom he appears to have approved.

  6. Benedict V (964). After one month in office, he accepted deposition by Emperor Otto I.

  7. Benedict IX (1032-45). Benedict resigned after selling the papacy to his godfather Gregory VI.

  8. Gregory VI (1045-46). Deposed for simony by Henry III.

  9. Celestine V (1294). A hermit, elected at age of 80 and overwhelmed by the office, resigned. He was imprisoned by his successor.

  10. Gregory XII (1406-15). Resigned at request of Council of Constance to help end the Great Western Schism.

Source: Patrick Granfield, "Papal Resignation" (The Jurist, winter and spring 1978) and J. N. D. Kelly, The Oxford Dictionary of Popes (1986).

What happens if the pope goes into a coma?

Problems would arise if pope went into a coma. Under such circumstances Vatican officials could continue to operate under their normal authority but any decision requiring the pope’s approval (the appointment of bishops, the approval of major documents, etc.) would simply have to wait.

Nor is it clear who would be responsible for making medical decisions for a pope in a coma. Prior to the 19th century, this was less of a problem because role of the papacy was more limited and because doctors were more likely to kill a person with their care than keep him alive. The ability of modern medicine to keep the body alive while the mind is deteriorating will eventually present the church with a constitutional crisis. And despite church teaching that extraordinary means need not be used to keep alive a dying patient, who will have the courage to unplug the life support systems of a pope? More importantly, who will have the credibility within the church to do this without causing a ecclesial crisis. Clearly the pope should write a living will to indicate his desires and who has the authority to make such a decision if he is unconscious. The best choice would be a family member, old friend or person appointed by the pope himself whose love and loyalty to the pope would be unquestioned but who would at the same time have the ability to make a tough decision.

If a pope continued in a coma for long time and thus incapable of communication, the church would be in serious trouble. Some believe that John Paul has written a secret document to deal with this, but such a document might be questioned canonically since it was not formally promulgated. If he were a simple bishop, his "see" or diocese would be considered "impeded" and the provisions of canon law would be followed.

What would happen if a pope became mentally disabled?

If a pope became mentally disabled, the church would face a constitutional crisis because there are no procedures for dealing with such a situation as there is in the 25th amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Father James Provost wrote in America (September 30, 2000):

Medieval canonists argued that if the pope became mentally disabled, he could no longer function as a human being and should be treated as if he were dead; a new pope would then be elected. More recent scholars have argued that the Holy Spirit would never let such a situation happen, although that seems a weak argument in light of the precedent of Urban VI (pope from 1378 to 1389), whose serious emotional or mental disturbances led the cardinals to exercise the option of electing another pope. This launched the church on the disastrous Western Schism (1378-1417).

A resignation could also be problematic because to resign from office one must be of sound mind (canon 187). If any other bishop became mentally disabled, his see would be considered "impeded" and the provisions of canon law would be followed.

What could the church do if the Apostolic See becomes impeded?

Canon 335 of the present Code of Canon Law directs that special laws are to be followed if the Apostolic See becomes impeded but no special legislation has been promulgated. "This is a rather serious vacuum in the church’s constitutional law," wrote Rev. James Provost in America (September 30, 2000). Provost argued:

Since there are no rules for what to do in this situation, the standard canon law procedure is for the officials to turn to parallel cases for direction. Moreover, whatever they do will have to be seen by the church at large as being correct in order to avoid cries of foul play, or even another schism.

What parallels would be of help in this situation? First, the standard for what it means to be impeded is already given in the church’s law concerning a diocese. The pope is a diocesan bishop, so the norm of being incapable of communicating, even by letter, would apply to him. Second, who makes the determination that the pope is so impeded that something must be done? When a pope dies, it is the camerlengo who officially makes this determination. The camerlengo is a very trusted cardinal named by the pope to this special job. He would appear to be the logical one to make the determination that the pope is impeded. He needs to rely on truly competent experts in determining that the pope is dead; the same would be true in determining if the pope is impeded.

Who takes over while the pope is impeded? In a diocese, a coadjutor or auxiliary bishop automatically does so; otherwise, the diocesan bishop is supposed to have drawn up a list of those to be named. Only if there is no list do the consultors [a committee of priests appointed by the bishop] elect an administrator. The pope already has an auxiliary—the cardinal vicar of Rome, who does the daily running of the Roman diocese for the pope. On the other hand, when a pope dies, the camerlengo together with two other cardinals provides a sort of collegial administration until a new pope is elected. A similar process could be followed if a pope were impeded. But this would be different from the way the law says an impeded diocese is to be run, and it should be worked out in the section on “special laws” for the impeded Roman See that is still missing.

But the person who takes over would not be pope, and so could not exercise those special prerogatives that go with the papal office, such as the exercise of supreme jurisdiction or the gift of infallibility. This would hold up the appointment of bishops, action by the Roman Curia on issues of major importance that require the pope’s prior approval, the creation of new dioceses and the like.

For the complete text of "What If the Pope Became Disabled?" by James Provost America, (September 30, 2000).

What happens when the pope dies?

The interregnum and election of a new pope are governed by the rules established in the 1996 constitution Universi Dominici Gregis ("Of the Lord's Whole Flock") of John Paul II.

When the pope dies, the prefect of the papal household (Bishop James Harvey) informs the camerlengo (chamberlain) who must verify his death in the presence of the papal master of ceremonies, the cleric prelates of the Apostolic Camera and the secretary of the Apostolic Camera, who draws up a death certificate. As late as 1903, at the death of Leo XIII, this verification was ritually done by tapping the forehead of the pope with a silver hammer. It may also have been done with John XXIII. The camerlengo (Cardinal Eduardo Martinez Somalo) tells the vicar of Rome (Cardinal Camillo Ruini) of the pope’s death and the vicar then informs the people of Rome. Meanwhile the prefect of the papal household tells the dean (Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger) of the college of cardinals, who informs the rest of the college, the ambassadors accredited to the Holy See and the heads of nations. Although this is the formal procedure, in fact most people will first hear of the death of the pope from the media.

The camerlengo locks and seals the private apartment of the pope. In the past looting of papal apartments by his staff, the cardinals or the Roman populace was a common custom. Modern popes have been more concerned that their private papers not fall into the wrong hands. If the pope writes a will, the executor he appoints will take care of his private property and his private papers. This executor is answerable only to the next pope. The pope’s Fisherman’s ring and his seal are broken to symbolize the end of his reign and to prevent forgeries. No autopsy is performed--which can lead to wild media speculation if the pope dies suddenly, as occurred with John Paul I.

When is the pope's funeral?

After the death of the pope, the cardinals arrange for the funeral rites for the pope, to be celebrated for nine consecutive days, in accordance with the Ordo Exsequiarum Romani Pontificis. The date for the funeral and burial is set by the college of cardinals, but Universi Dominici Gregis states it is to "take place, except for special reasons, between the fourth and sixth day after death." The funeral is arranged by the camerlengo in accordance with instructions left him by the pope.

Who governs the church between the pope's death and the election of a new pope?

All the cardinals and archbishops in charge of departments in the Roman Curia, including the secretary of state (Cardinal Angelo Sodano), lose their jobs when the pope dies. The ordinary faculties of these offices, which are run by their secretaries during the interregnum, do not cease on the death of the pope, but serious and controversial matters are to await the election of a new pope. The offices are run by their secretaries who remain in position, as do the secretary for relations with states (Archbishop Giovanni Lajolo) and the sostituto (Archbishop Leonardo Sandri). If the matter cannot be postponed, the college of cardinals can entrust it to the prefect or president who was in charge of the office when the pope died (or to other cardinals who were members of that congregation or council). Any decision made is provisional until confirmed by the new pope.

Three major officials do not lose their jobs: the vicar of the Diocese of Rome (Cardinal Camillo Ruini), the major penitentiary (Cardinal J. Francis Stafford) and the camerlengo. The vicar for Rome provides for the pastoral needs of the Diocese of Rome and continues to have all the powers he had under the deceased pope. The major penitentiary deals with confessional matters reserved to the Holy See, and he is allowed to continue functioning because the door to forgiveness should never be closed.  

The camerlengo (Cardinal Eduardo Martinez Somalo) is the most important official during the interregnum. While the pope is alive, he has the authority to act for the pope in certain areas when the pope is away from Rome. On the death of the pope, the camerlengo takes charge of and administers the property and money of the Holy See, with the help of three cardinal assistants chosen by lot from among those cardinals under 80. During the interregnum he reports to the college of cardinals, which governs the church until a pope is elected. He also organizes the conclave.

Although the government of the church is in the hands of the college of cardinals until a new pope is elected, the powers of the college are limited. It cannot change the rules governing papal elections, appoint cardinals or make any decisions binding on the next pope. The cardinals meet daily in a general congregation, presided over by the dean of the college, until the conclave begins. All the cardinals attend the general congregation, although attendance by those over 80 is optional. A commission headed by the camerlengo with three cardinals (chosen by lot and replaced every three days from among the cardinals under 80) can deal with lesser issues. The first meeting of the cardinals will be on April 4.

Is there campaigning prior to the conclave?

Any discussion, let alone campaigning, prior to the death of a pope is strictly forbidden. The prohibition against discussing papal succession while the pope is still alive dates back to Felix IV (526-30), who instructed the clergy and the Roman Senate to elect his archdeacon, Boniface, as his successor. The senate objected and passed an edict forbidding any discussion of a pope's successor during his lifetime.

Discussions prior to the conclave do occur privately among cardinals, but public campaigning, even after the pope's death, is frowned upon and would probably be counterproductive. Cardinals who travel a great deal are sometimes suspected of doing this in order to meet and become known to other cardinals prior to the conclave. The cardinals have also gotten to know each other at synods of bishops, extraordinary consistories and other meetings where they see each other in action. Normally the discussion of candidates is done privately by cardinals over dinner or in small groups.

When and where is the conclave held?

Unless circumstances prevent it, the conclave takes place inside Vatican City and begins 15 days after death of the pope. For serious reasons, the cardinals can defer the beginning of the conclave, but it must begin within 20 days of the pope's death. The exact date and time are set by the college of cardinals. The election takes place in the Sistine Chapel, with the cardinals living in the five-story Domus Sanctae Marthae, a Vatican residence with 105 two-room suites and 26 single rooms built in 1996, which is vacated by its usual residents during a conclave. The rooms are assigned by lot. A number of elections in the 19th century were held in the Quirinal Palace, which was one of the pope's palaces until the fall of the Papal States in 1870. The last election to take place outside Rome was in Venice in 1800.

Where does the word "conclave" come from?

In the 13th century the papacy was vacant for a year-and-a-half before the election of Innocent IV and for three-and-a-half years before the installation of Gregory X. In the first case the election was finally forced by the senate and people of Rome, who locked up the cardinals until a pope was chosen in 1243. In the second case, the people of Viterbo in 1271 not only locked the cardinals in, but tore off the roof of the building and put the cardinals on a diet of bread and water. The word "conclave" comes from the Latin, "with a key," as in locked with a key. Today the cardinals are locked in to ensure secrecy and to protect them from outside influence. Before the conclave begins, all telephones, cell phones, radios, televisions and Internet connections are removed. No letters or newspapers are permitted. All the rooms are swept for electronic bugs by trained technicians. Whether this will be sufficient to prevent more sophisticated eavesdropping remains to be seen.

Who is permitted in the conclave?

All cardinals who are under 80 years of age when the pope dies have the right to vote for the next pope, unless they have been canonically deposed or, with the permission of the pope, have renounced the cardinalate. Even an excommunicated cardinal can attend. A cardinal who had resigned and joined Bonaparte attempted to enter the conclave in 1800 but was turned away. Once inside the conclave, an elector may not leave except because of illness or other grave reasons acknowledged by a majority of the cardinals.

Also permitted in the conclave are nurses for infirm cardinals, two medical doctors, religious priests who can hear confessions in various languages, the secretary of the College of Cardinals, the master of papal liturgical celebrations with two masters of ceremonies and two religious attached to the papal sacristy, and an assistant chosen by the cardinal dean. Also permitted are a suitable number of persons for preparing and serving meals and for housekeeping. They must swear absolute and perpetual secrecy concerning anything they learn concerning the election of the pope.

Who are the cardinal electors?

All cardinals under 80 years of age when the pope dies have the right to vote for the next pope. Currently (March 29, 2005) there are 117 cardinal electors, all but three appointed by John Paul II. Additional Cardinals turning 80 in 2005 include: Marco Ce (July 8), Alvarez Martinez (July 14), Razafindratandra (August 7) and Falcao (October 23).

The average age of the electors is 71.7 years of age. About 49.6% are from Europe--17.1% from Italy; 22.2% from the rest of Western Europe (including Berlin); 10.3% from Eastern Europe. About 37.3% are from the Third World. Asia and Africa have 9.4% each; Latin America 17.9%; Oceania, 1.7%. The United States has 9.4% (not counting Cardinal Husar, who gave up his U.S. citizenship after returning to Ukraine), second only to Italy; Canada 2.6%. Curial cardinals make up about 23.9% of the electors.

The maximum number of cardinals was set at 70 by Sixtus V in 1586. John XXIII ignored this limit, and the college grew to over 80 cardinals. In 1970 Paul VI reformed the college of cardinals by increasing the number of electors to 120, not counting those 80 years of age and over who were excluded as electors. John Paul II exceeded this limit by two in 1998 and by 15 in 2001 and 2003.

How has John Paul II changed the makeup of the college of cardinals?

John Paul II has made the college less Italian and more Eastern European. At the death of Paul VI in 1978, 23.7% of the college was Italian and 5.3% was from Eastern Europe (not counting Berlin); today, 17.1% is Italian and 10.3% is Eastern European. There are also slightly more Latin Americans: today 17.9% versus 16.7% in 1978. The percent from Africa (9.4% versus 10.5%) are Asia (9.4% versus 8.8%) are almost exactly the same. The percent from the United States is 9.4% today versus 10.5% in 1978.

Has the pope always been elected by the cardinals?

Although the college of cardinals elects the pope today, this was not the rule until the 11th  century. A few early popes, including St. Peter, may have appointed their successors, but this method did not gain acceptance. In the early church, popes were usually chosen by the clergy and people of Rome in the same way that bishops in other dioceses were elected. The one elected was then ordained by the bishops of the surrounding towns. This democratic process worked well when the church was small and united. But disagreements led to factions who fought over the papacy. As early as 217 the Christians of Rome were so divided over an election that fighting broke out. Pagan soldiers broke up the fight and exiled both men to the Sardinian tin mines. In 366, mobs and hired thugs from opposing factions invaded churches and killed opponents by the hundreds. Roman nobles, emperors and kings began interfering in papal elections as the church became rich and powerful.

After the eighth century, the papal electors were limited to the clergy of the Diocese of Rome. This followed the pattern of other dioceses where the clergy elected the bishop. The man elected pope was normally a priest or deacon. No bishop was elected pope until 891 (Formosus), because it was considered improper for a bishop to leave the diocese for which he had originally been ordained a bishop. A bishop was considered "married" to his diocese, and moving to another diocese was comparable to adultery.

Nicholas II (1059-61) proposed a system whereby the cardinal bishops would meet to nominate a candidate and then invite in the cardinal priests to vote on him. Alexander III modified this system by including all the cardinals in the election process from the beginning. Since 1179, only cardinals have voted for the pope except for the election in 1417 that ended the Western Schism. In this election, 30 representatives chosen from the Council of Constance joined the 23 cardinals (5 from the Roman line and 18 from the Pisa line) in electing the new pope.

The cardinals are divided into three orders or categories: cardinal deacons, cardinal priests and cardinal bishops. The cardinal priests were the pastors of major churches in Rome, and the cardinal deacons were important administrators in the diocese, often of what we would now call charities or social services. The cardinal bishops were the bishops of the six dioceses surrounding Rome. In the 11th century popes began appointing prelates in distant lands as cardinals. Sometimes laymen were also appointed cardinals, but it was normally expected that they would receive at least minor orders. John XXIII decreed that all the cardinals should be bishops, although he kept the three orders. Some priests who were made cardinals after the age of 80, like Avery Dulles, have been exempted from becoming bishops.

What happens on the first day of the conclave?

On the morning the conclave begins, the cardinal electors celebrate Mass in St. Peter's Basilica. In the afternoon they gather in the Pauline Chapel in the Apostolic Palace and solemnly process to the Sistine Chapel. The cardinals take an oath to observe the rules laid down in Universi Dominici Gregis, especially those enjoining secrecy. They also swear not to support interference in the election by any secular authorities or "any group of people or individuals who might wish to intervene in the election of the Roman pontiff." Finally, the electors swear that whoever is elected will carry out the "munus Petrinum of pastor of the universal church" and will "affirm and defend strenuously the spiritual and temporal rights and liberty of the Holy See." Another section of the constitution says that the new pope is not bound by any oaths or promises made prior to his election.

After the oath is taken, everyone not connected with the conclave is ordered out with the Latin words "Extra omnes," "Everybody out!" The Sistine Chapel and the Domus Sanctae Marthae are then closed to unauthorized persons by the camerlengo. Outside the conclave, the camerlengo is assisted by the sostituto of the Secretariat of State, who directs Vatican personnel to protect the integrity and security of the conclave.

After everyone else leaves, an ecclesiastic chosen earlier by the college of cardinals gives a meditation "concerning the grave duty incumbent on them and thus on the need to act with right intention for the good of the universal church, solum Deum prae oculis habentes [having only God before your eyes]." When he finishes, he leaves the Sistine Chapel with the master of papal liturgical ceremony so that only the cardinal electors remain. The time in the chapel is for prayer and voting in silence, not campaign speeches. Negotiations and arguments are to take place outside the chapel. If they wish, the cardinals can immediately begin the election process and hold one ballot on the afternoon of the first day. If no one receives the required two-thirds vote in the balloting on the afternoon of the first day, the cardinals meet again the next morning.

How does the balloting take place?

The regulations for balloting are very detailed to eliminate any suspicion of electoral fraud--no hanging chads here. Three "scrutineers" (vote counters) are chosen by lot from the electors, with the least senior cardinal deacon drawing the names. He draws three additional names of cardinals (called infirmarii) who will collect the ballots of any cardinals in the conclave who are too sick to come to the Sistine Chapel. A final three names are drawn by lot to act as revisers, who review the work done by the scrutineers. Each morning and afternoon, new scrutineers, infirmarii and revisers are chosen by lot.

The electors use rectangular cards as ballots with "Eligo in summum pontificem" (“I elect as supreme pontiff”) printed at the top. When folded down the middle the ballot is only one inch wide. Each cardinal in secret prints or writes the name of his choice on the ballot in a way that disguises his handwriting. One at a time, in order of precedence, the cardinals approach the altar with their folded ballot held up so that it can be seen. On the altar there is a receptacle (traditionally a large chalice) covered by a small plate (paten). After kneeling in prayer for a short time, the cardinal rises and swears, "I call as my witness Christ the Lord who will be my judge, that my vote is given to the one who before God I think should be elected." He then places the ballot on the plate. Finally he picks up the plate and uses it to drop the ballot into the receptacle. The use of the plate makes it difficult for a cardinal to drop two ballots into the chalice.

The first scrutineer uses the plate as a cover when shaking the receptacle to mix the ballots. The last scrutineer counts the ballots before they are unfolded. If the number of ballots does not correspond to the number of electors, the ballots are burned without being counted and another vote is immediately taken. If the number of ballots does match the number of electors, the scrutineers, who are sitting at a table in front of the altar, begin counting the votes.

The first scrutineer unfolds the ballot, notes the name on a piece of paper and passes the ballot to the second scrutineer. He notes the name and passes the ballot to the third scrutineer, who reads it aloud for all the cardinals to hear. If there are two names on a single ballot, the ballot is not counted. The last scrutineer pierces each ballot with a threaded needle through the word "Eligo" and places it on the thread. After all the ballots have been read, the ends of the thread are tied together and the ballots thus joined are placed in an empty receptacle. The scrutineers then add up the totals for each candidate. Finally, the three revisers check both the ballots and the notes of the scrutineers to make sure that they performed their task faithfully and exactly.

To be elected, two thirds of the votes are required, calculated on the basis of the total number of electors present. Should it be impossible to divide the number of cardinals present into three equal parts, for the validity of the election one additional vote is required. Thus if all the current 117 cardinal electors are present, 78 votes would be required to elect a new pope.

The ballots and notes (including those made by any cardinal) are then burned unless another vote is to take place immediately. The ballots are burned by the scrutineers with the assistance of the secretary of the conclave and the master of ceremonies, who adds special chemicals to make the smoke white or black. Since 1903, white smoke has signaled the election of a pope; black smoke signals an inconclusive vote. The only written record of the voting permitted is a document prepared by the camerlengo and approved by the three cardinal assistants, which is prepared at the end of the election and gives the results of each session. This document is given to the new pope and then placed in the archives in a sealed envelope that may be opened by no one unless the pope gives permission.

How long can the conclave last?

The conclave lasts until a new pope is elected. The last conclave to go more than five days was in 1831: it lasted 54 days. In the 13th century the papacy was vacant for a year-and-a-half before the election of Innocent IV and for three-and-a-half years before the installation of Gregory X. Since then 29 conclaves have lasted a month or more. Often wars or civil disturbances in Rome caused these lengthy interregnums. Sometimes delays were caused by the cardinals themselves, who enjoyed the power and financial rewards of running the papacy without a pope. These abuses led to rules governing an interregnum and requiring the speedy calling of a conclave.

What happens after the first day?

If no one receives the required two-thirds of the votes in the balloting on the afternoon of the first day, the cardinals meet again the next morning. If they are again unsuccessful, they immediately vote again. From then on, there can be two votes in the morning and two in the afternoon. Each morning and afternoon, new scrutineers, infirmarii and revisers are chosen by lot. If a second vote takes place, the materials from two votes are burned at the same time. Thus twice a day there will be black smoke from the stove until a pope is elected.

If after three days the cardinals have still not elected anyone, the voting sessions can be suspended for one day for prayer and discussion among the electors. During this intermission, a brief spiritual exhortation is given by the senior cardinal deacon. Then another seven votes take place, followed by a suspension and an exhortation by the senior cardinal priest. Another seven votes take place, followed by a suspension and an exhortation by the senior cardinal bishop. Voting is then resumed for another seven ballots.

If no candidate receives a two-thirds vote after this balloting, the camerlengo invites the electors to express an opinion about the manner of proceeding. It is at this point that the dramatic changes occur introduced by John Paul II that allow an absolute majority (more than half) of the electors to waive the requirement of a two-thirds majority vote. Thus, an absolute majority of the electors can decide to elect the pope by an absolute majority. They can also decide to force a choice between the two candidates who in the preceding ballot received the greatest number of votes. In this second case also only an absolute majority is required.

As a consequence, if an absolute majority of the electors favored a candidate in the first ballot of the first day of the conclave, in theory they could hold firm for about 12 days through about 30 votes until they could change the rules and elect their candidate. In the past, the two-thirds requirement was an incentive for the electors to compromise or move to another candidate. Now a majority does not have to compromise. It can hold tight, while the minority is pressed to give in since everyone knows that eventually the majority will prevail. In such a case, the minority would undoubtedly give in rather than scandalize the faithful and upset the man who inevitably would become pope.

John Paul II did not explain in Universi Dominici Gregis why he made this change. Perhaps he feared a long conclave. By giving the cardinals more comfortable quarters, he reduced the discomfort factor that discouraged long conclaves. Allowing the cardinals to elect a pope with an absolute majority reduces the likelihood of a conclave going on for months. On the other hand, allowing an absolute majority to elect a pope after about 12 days increases the likelihood of a conclave lasting that long.

Who can be elected?

In theory, any man can be elected who is willing to be baptized and ordained a priest and bishop. He does not have to be at the conclave. The last noncardinal elected was Urban VI (1378). The last cardinal to be elected pope who was a priest but not a bishop was Gregory XVI (1831). Callistus III (Affonso Borgia 1455) was the last person to be elected who was not a priest. Most likely a cardinal elector will be elected, all of whom today are bishops.

Who might be elected?

The next pope will probably be a cardinal between 62 and 72 years of age, who speaks Italian and English and reflects John Paul's positions (liberal on social justice and peace, traditional in church teaching and practice, and ecumenical but convinced the church has the truth) but has a very different personality and is a supporter of less centralization in the church and therefore probably not a curial cardinal.

Age. Of the nine popes who lived in the 20th century (beginning with Leo XIII), their average age at the time of election was 65 years, with John XXIII the oldest at 76 and John Paul II the youngest at 58. The average age of the current cardinals is 71.7. Some argue that the cardinals will elect an elderly cardinal because they will not want another long papacy. On the other hand, do they want to elect an elderly cardinal who will soon become sick and weak like John Paul II? I don't think so.

Languages. John Paul has shown how important it is for the pope to be multilingual. Italian is important because it is the language of the people of Rome, for whom the pope is diocesan bishop. It is also the working language of the Vatican Curia. English is important because it is almost everyone's first or second language. Spanish is valuable because it is the language of so many Catholics. Languages are also important because the cardinals will want to be able to converse with the pope using a language in which they are comfortable.

Positions. John Paul has appointed all but three of the current cardinals under the age of 80 who will elect his successor. In appointing cardinals, John Paul II has done what anyone would do if they were pope--he has appointed men who agree with him on the major issues that face the church. The next conclave, as a result, will not elect someone who will reject the legacy of John Paul. With the next pope, we will see more continuity than change.

But governance style could change. For example, the cardinals may look for someone who would allow more decentralization in decision making in the church, with more power to individual bishops and bishops conferences rather than the Vatican curia. Over three quarters of the cardinals are diocesan bishops who, even if conservative, may prefer to have less interference from Vatican bureaucrats.

As a result, there will be more continuity than change in church doctrine and policy. That means someone who is liberal on political and economic issues but traditional on sexual morality and internal church issues. Someone who supports ecumenical and interreligious dialogue but is convinced the church has the truth. In short, I do not support the "pendulum" theory when it comes to doctrine, but it may be true on personality and governance style (see below).

Personality. While there will be a continuity in policy, there will be a change in personality because there is no one in the college with John Paul's personality and cloning is against church teaching. There is no one with a personality like John Paul's in the college of cardinals, with a background as a Polish actor, intellectual and teacher, who grew up under Nazism and Communism.

Less Centralization. When the cardinals gather in conclave, they will praise John Paul "of happy memory," but there may be a backlash against the Vatican Curia, whose power has grown during this papacy. Even the most conservative cardinal wants to run his diocese the way he thinks best without interference from Rome. The cardinals may therefore look for someone who would support more decentralization of decision making in the church--more power to bishops and bishops' conferences.

Not a Curial Cardinal. Seventy-six percent of the cardinals are diocesan bishops who are running local churches. They want someone who knows what it is like to be a local bishop, not simply a Vatican bureaucrat. Many cardinals working in the curia had diocesan experience before they came to Rome, and some Vatican officials left the curia and became cardinals as archbishops of local churches. These cardinals with both experiences have an advantage. Of the popes elected during the 20th century, only Pius XII had no diocesan experience, and only three (Pius X, John Paul I and John Paul II) never worked in the Vatican. The remaining five had worked in the curia but were leaders of archdioceses when elected pope.

John Allen, the Roman correspondent for The National Catholic Reporter, is an astute observer with good sources. Here is his Top Ten list (in alphabetical order, not in order of electability):

  • Francis Arinze (Nigeria, 11/1/32), prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship

  • Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Argentina, 12/17/36), archbishop of Buenos Aires

  • Godfried Danneels (Belgium, 6/4/33), archbishop of Mechelen-Brussels

  • Ivan Dias (India, 4/14/36), archbishop of Mumbai (Bombay)

  • Cláudio Hummes (Brazil, 8/8/34), archbishop of Sao Paolo

  • Walter Kasper (Germany, 3/5/33), president of the Pontifical Council for Christian Unity

  • Norberto Rivera Carrera (Mexico, 6/6/42): archbishop of Mexico City

  • Oscar Andrés Rodriguez Maradiaga (Honduras, 12/29/42): archbishop of Tegucigalpa

  • Christoph Schönborn (Austria, 1/22/45), archbishop of Vienna

  • Dionigi Tettamanzi (Italy, 3/14/34), archbishop of Milan

Since there has been much discussion of the possibility of electing an Italian or third world pope, in a Mar. 5, 2004, e-column, John Allen listed his top five Italian and third world candidates:

    Italian

  • Tettamanzi, Dionigi (Milan, 3/14/34)

  • Antonelli, Ennio (Florence, 11/18/36)

  • Bertone, Tarcisio (Genoa, 12/2/34)

  • Scola, Angelo (Venice, 11/7/41)

  • Re, Giovanni Battista (Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops, 1/30/34)
     

  • Third World

  • Arinze, Francis (Nigeria, 11/1/32)

  • Bergoglio, Jorge Mario (Argentina, 12/17/36)

  • Dias, Ivan (India, 4/14/36)

  • Hummes, Cláudio (Brazil, 8/8/34)

  • Rodriguez Maradiaga, Oscar Andrés (Honduras, 12/29/42)

What are the chances of an American being elected?

Almost zero. First, although a number of the American cardinals are fluent in Spanish, Americans are not great linguists. Second, and most important, the cardinals would worry about how the election of an American would be perceived around the world, especially in the third world and Muslim nations. Many in the third world would suspect that the C.I.A. fixed the election or Wall Street bought it. Muslims would fear that an American pope was going to be a chaplain for the White House. Finally, through the centuries the church has tried to keep the papacy out of the hands of the reigning superpower, whether that was the Holy Roman Empire, France or Spain. When France captured the papacy, it moved it to Avignon in 1309, where it stayed until 1377.

Who would you bet on to be the next pope?

I am not Jimmy the Greek, nor do I gamble. If you want to know what a bookie thinks, see OLBG: Next Pope Odds and paddypower.com: Who will be the next Pope?

What issues will be discussed in the conclave?

Tip O'Neil was correct: "All politics is local," even in the Catholic Church.

The cardinals from the third world have people who are starving and suffering from the negative impact of globalization of the economy. They will want a pope who will speak out for social justice and forgiveness of third world debt and be willing to stand up to the American superpower. Cardinals from Africa and Asia are confronted by growing Islamic fundamentalism. They will want a pope who understands Islam and will not use inflammatory words like "crusade," as did President George W. Bush. They want a pope who, like John Paul, will support dialogue with Muslims but at the same time stand up for the rights of Catholics. On the other hand, in Latin America there are few Muslims. The concern there is the evangelicals and Pentecostals who are "stealing their sheep." In North America and Europe, the cardinals will want a pope who supports ecumenical dialogue with Protestants and Jews. Given the growing alienation of educated women, they would also want someone who projects an understanding of women's concerns. The last thing they would want, for example, is a pope who would decide to get rid of altar girls. The American cardinals would also want someone who understands and supports what they are doing to deal with the sexual abuse crisis.

One issue that may unite them is a desire for less curial interference in local church affairs. After all, 76 percent of the cardinals do not work in the Vatican Curia but govern local dioceses, where they (conservative or liberal) do not like bureaucrats in Rome telling them what to do.

What happens after the election?

The cardinal dean asks the man, "Do you accept your canonical election as supreme pontiff?" Rarely does anyone say no. When offered the papacy at the conclave in Viterbo in 1271, St. Philip Benizi fled and hid until another candidate was chosen. Likewise St. Charles Borromeo, one of the few cardinals to be canonized, turned down the papacy. When Cardinal Giovanni Colombo, the 76-year-old archbishop of Milan, began receiving votes during the conclave in October 1978, he made it clear that he would refuse the papacy if elected. If the man says yes, then he becomes pope immediately if he is already a bishop. The rest is simply ceremony. If he is not already a bishop, he is to be ordained one immediately by the cardinal dean and becomes pope as soon as this has been done. The dean in ancient times was the bishop of Ostia, a nearby town.

He is then asked by what name he wants to be called. The first pope to change his name was John II in 533. His given name, Mercury, was considered inappropriate since it was the name of a pagan god. Another pope in 983 took the name John XIV because his given name was Peter. Reverence for the first pope precluded his becoming Peter II. At the end of the first millennium a couple of non-Italian popes changed their names to ones that the Romans could more easily pronounce. The custom of changing one's name became common around the year 1009. The last pope to keep his own name was Marcellus II, elected in 1555.

The cardinals then approach the new pope and make an act of homage and obedience. A prayer of thanksgiving is then said, and the senior cardinal deacon informs the people in St. Peters Square that the election has taken place and announces the name of the new pope. The pope then may speak to the crowd and grant his first solemn blessing "urbi et orbi," to the city and the world. John Paul I and John Paul II prolonged the conclave until the following morning so that they could meet and dine with the cardinals.

John Paul II had audiences for diplomats and the press in the week after his election. The inauguration mass took place on Oct. 22, six days after the election (in the past this would have involved crowning the pope with the papal tiara, but since John Paul I involves the receiving of the pallium). Later still he took possession of his cathedral, St. John Lateran.

What issues will the next pope face?

See "2001 And Beyond: Preparing The Church For The Next Millennium" by Thomas J. Reese, S.J.

Information on John Paul II

More information on conclaves


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